in this latest EP of outcast trading podcast, we examine the Russia/Ukraine conflict, reasons why we are pumping, and the CHIPS act. Plus some exciting news regarding a transition to a new discord server! Stay tuned to future episodes for more news!
00:31.88
ebox86
And welcome back. Everyone. Ah, it has been a long long. Ah, ah, nice break. Ah, but it is July July Jew. Ah July and it's already 2022 so welcome to welcome to 2022 and I believe our last episode was in December so it's been a bit of a reprieve for us and the podcast here but a lot has happened a lot a lot has happened since December and ah and it's just been ah, an interesting sort of affairs also with the podcast too. And ah in the next couple episodes. You'll see a bit of a change and some restructuring here. So we've we've ah made some decisions in the background to kind of rehome the pod to a new Discord server so we'll be making some some background changes in the next couple of ah of a couple of episodes. So you'll see that you'll see that coming with a name change and some other some other interesting tidbits and a new website too as well. So so lots lots of stuff coming up. Ah, and so um, so stay tuned for that. We'll definitely keep our Twitter handle at outcast trading. Um. Ah, up to date so please check that for for updates and as the the um transition kind of gets more progressed so so with us on the pod this this time we have a pretty good panel of ah of outcast traders. We've got Alex.
02:16.31
Alex
Hello Everybody glad to be here.
02:20.37
Grundle
Hey how's it going.
02:20.57
ebox86
We've got grundle. We've got smanny.
02:25.87
Smanty
Hey I was muted there for a None
02:28.97
ebox86
Cool and I'm ebox your host so I would just like to start out with how I always do who made money this week.
02:35.44
Smanty
Um, get to do.
02:39.00
Grundle
So I should have.
02:40.12
Alex
Um, I yeah I almost did I was up thursday.
02:41.64
Smanty
Lots of yeah lots of ups and downs. But I am up.
02:46.29
ebox86
So who's who's had who's had success playing this chop because I feel like this has really been the challenge of the past two weeks I mean with we've seen so much red right? and and just kind of ah as a retrospective of the none half of the year you know we we really saw. Um, when was spy at the highs when when did when did we really see like the drop um was it. Um March time frame I want to say the spy none um, kind of highs does anyone remember.
03:20.78
Grundle
Yeah I mean today was pretty brutal. But yeah, it looks I'm looking at my chart right now it looks like January Fourth was probably out for for 8 to 8 was the high. Yeah.
03:33.73
ebox86
so so wow so so we've we've had nonstop you know drilling really since that's clearly defined the None half of 2022 has been ah has been red candles and you know who's had.
03:45.20
Grundle
Um.
03:52.50
ebox86
Who's had success in kind of managing this I mean either through Puts or through kind of um, some selling like what? what? what have people found so successful.
04:00.87
Alex
Um, yeah, so I don't typically play down.
04:01.36
Grundle
So well I think you know for me personally during that time in January that's like a really outside of trading busy time for me so I didn't really trade that much between January and March because of my personal life i.
04:08.45
Alex
I.
04:19.12
Grundle
Accounting and an accounting world that is not a time where you get to have your face planted into charts. So I have to bow out on that one. So.
04:24.58
ebox86
Right? right? right? Alex you were saying.
04:30.35
Alex
Yeah, So ah I don't typically play down So I don't get Puts I don't short stocks typically. But luckily I had a lot of expenses when the market was high so I actually ended up accidentally or just conveniently selling a lot of my portfolio somewhat near the top. And then now I've just been holding on the cash and trying to build everything back up. But yeah, dollar cost averaging that's it.
04:56.35
ebox86
Dollar cost averaging that's that's the way really nice and that you found that do you feel that you know we've kind of feathered around the some bottoming and you think some bottoming has kind of happened on sun something thingss.
05:12.68
Alex
The word the word I like to throw on the vocabulary word that I just recently learned and learned what it meant as capitulation right? or seeing a a swing in direction of the markets. But yeah I don't know this could be a this could be I still see down trends.
05:25.79
ebox86
What.
05:32.47
Alex
As I still think this could be a ah fake little leg up here. Just.
05:35.17
Grundle
So I like to call this I like to call this a power bottom So you know.
05:35.32
ebox86
Is this is right right? right.
05:41.66
Smanty
So well, there's a technical reason and there is a fundamental reason why we started moving up but the technical reason is we bounced off of the the none exponential moving average. So that happened None None 3 4 None six weeks ago um, and since then we've been in it in this chop phase and then just broke out of it this week but um, on a fundamental note inflation has been showing signs of of peaking and consumer. Um. Consumer response to that has been let's spend more money. So the consumer doesn't seem to be to be letting off at all. But at the same time we're seeing savings, diminish and credit usage scoutrocket.
06:30.58
Grundle
I yeah, the None thing that I that I you know, kind of picked up on today was you know Amx reported and at and t reported and you have like kind of 2 different consumers that are they're you know in those those None kind of reports that came out because like. Yeah, generally the the more affluent consumer is going to be using Aly is probably going to have an Amx right? and the Amx report if I'm not mistaken was saying that you know they weren't really having a problem with regard to delinquencies on credit card debts and the debts weren't really increasing. Meaning that the more affluent customer the people that you know are making you know have pretty good salary and all that stuff they're still buying. They're still spending Amex's report was fine. Um, but then on the other hand, you've got you know variety like well it was at and t which kind of.
07:19.33
Smanty
I.
07:20.37
Grundle
Spans the broad spectrum of the entire consumer right? So you've got the you know you've got anybody from you know the pizza boy or anybody that is you know working you know a normal you know hourly wage probably has a cell phone nowadays right? and so they're still. In that bucket along with the you know normal per you know about normal but the more affluent customer is also possibly a customer with at and t. But what they were saying is um at and t was running into a cash crunch because they were actually having longer um cash receipts on their account balances right. So what that says to me is that the you know the the lower end of the consumer which would be you know the people making sub you know $50000 a year are definitely getting squeezed by you know, all this inflation that we're seeing with regard to gas prices and food. And and just everything that has been getting more expensive. Um, and unfortunately for at and t and for you know non- luxury goods, providers and stuff like that. They're starting to see that issue of actually creating cash flow problems which. I think is one thing that really created a big scare today. Um, because then on top of that you had the ah you know the reports from from snapchat and twitter where the ad spend and ad revenue was like pretty much just fell off of a cliff. Um, and what that says to me is that the people that would normally be buying ads on snapchat nino and and twitter trying to sell anything from sunglasses to you know to? you know, bathing suits or whatever. Ah, they're being hit now too because they're seeing a pullback on the you know the lower end customer. Um because and and that's and then with the immediate effect of that is a tightening on the ad spend for you know the ad budget for people because. You know you got to pay your employees. You gotta to pay your rent. You gotta to pay your utilities. You gotta to buy inventory. But if you're not receiving the same return on ad spend as you were used to You're gonna change your game up, you're gonna cut. Um, you're gonna cut your ad budget and that. Is what we're seeing happening now in twitter and snapchat and then then that also falls into facebook and google and amazon but not so much amazon but you know the advertisers are getting smacked right now. Um.
10:04.71
Grundle
And I think that that is definitely a direct correlation with regard to the consumer being squeezed and people having to save money in their companies and and cutting their ad budget. So that's my take on that.
10:15.64
Alex
Yeah, we real quick.
10:15.91
Smanty
Yeah, that's actually a really good indicator and I don't know if you saw but Biden came out with a tweet that said that um he just saved americans $25 a month on gas. Yeah and gas.
10:28.70
ebox86
Ah, Biden.
10:28.73
Grundle
On what on the gas prices is it. Oh I mean hey you know I'm I'm a lucky guy I don't really pay for gas. So I'm I'm I'm quite insulated thankfully from from this inflation stuff. But um.
10:29.98
Alex
Um, art on what? okay.
10:45.88
Grundle
I Know a lot of my friends I you know I manage and help a lot of different companies in my normal day-to-day dealing with that are anything from you know, personal portfolio companies that I deal with but also a number of you know, small businesses that are ah. Couple of them are actually moving companies and they are getting crushed ah like thankfully they're still seeing you know the the housing market hasn't quite contracted as much as what it really probably needs to um, but with rates Increasing. You're seeing less people buying and selling homes because the cost to purchase a home has increased and the home prices has not come down. Um, so there's still. Ah yeah, I'm just I'm just going over just ah, a direct like relationship to like.
11:30.17
Smanty
But there's ah, there's a lot more in the in the housing market than that than just that. But.
11:34.99
Alex
A lot too.
11:41.70
Smanty
Are.
11:41.48
Grundle
Ah, that how that affects the moving industry. So like the moving and like the moving industry is still is still running like they're still receiving the same revenue like pretty much the same revenues as what they were but they're getting squeezed on the gas because they're having a really hard time increasing the. Cost like and you know increasing the cost for a move. It's like I but but now the cost of it is like you know what None times more because the gasoline prices especially if you're driving somebodys stuff from say Virginia to California you've got you know your expensive travel has just you know tripled. So that's that's a problem. So. Yeah.
12:25.88
ebox86
What our gas prices around where people are right now I mean I'm in the Seattle area and they're just like they've come down a little bit but they're still just comic book high right now I just feel like I mean it's what what are people paying.
12:36.99
Grundle
Um, around me I know diesel is ah us's above None right now. Um, premium is like none I want to say um. The you know regular gas is like around I've seen like four 40 but that's like like Costco and stuff but like your normal your normal run of the mill gas station. It's like you know, probably 4 60 or so you're in the Dc Metro area
13:06.90
Alex
Yeah I.
13:06.36
Smanty
The cheapest ah sell was I just got back from a road trip. The cheapest I saw was down in in Georgia but this was back in end of April or early may and it was $2 and ¢85 when in Florida it was $4 and ¢15 so
13:06.40
ebox86
Right.
13:25.83
Grundle
Yep.
13:25.93
Smanty
It seems like Georgia is the winner for is closer the cheapest but.
13:29.19
Alex
Yeah, I'm looking at a chart for the national averages. Currently, it's $4 and ¢41 a year ago. It was $3 and ¢15 and then a month ago it was $5 so
13:29.76
Grundle
And 1 of the good things about jiou is.
13:40.42
Grundle
Yeah, no, it's definitely. It's still come down a bit like but not really where it needs to be but what can you.
13:41.34
ebox86
Um, so I think that.
13:47.11
ebox86
Right? right.
13:48.13
Smanty
It and it's been coming down for the wrong reasons too. I mean we're not looking inward we're we're still looking outward and we're still well well maybe maybe not totally for the wrong reasons but not for what we could be doing to solve solve these issues but it seems like we're.
13:48.95
Alex
Yep.
14:05.41
Smanty
We're still focused on Russia we're still focused on the Middle East we're still focused on Argentina and and the and the and South America to provide energy for us rather than looking inward and and biting the bullet for the short term like Europe is doing and just working to become. Energy independent or at least energy secure. Um before focusing on completely disrupting the industry because at at this point right now. Sorry sorry just None more point at this point right now if if the government is going around talking to all these these oil and gas companies and suggesting that.
14:29.38
ebox86
So so.
14:29.48
Alex
Um, gay europe's.
14:29.83
Grundle
Right.
14:42.52
Smanty
They're going to support them to increase. Um, if to expand operations now but they're not going to support them in None ears because in None ears That's when their their big green plan really goes into effect then no one in the right mind is going to invest $1000000000 now expecting a rate of return or a return on investment in 20 years if the government's not going to support them within 10 years
15:04.12
Grundle
Is a hundred percent true well the hundred percent agree with that. Um.
15:11.10
Alex
Yeah I wanted to go back to that real quick. Yeah Europe's being hit with like like the brunt of the damage from this entire fiasco going on I saw I Forget exactly the name of the bank but they were doing some sort of calculation because natural gas. They're very short on it's like. Spike through the roof apparently futures I haven't haven't looked at them. But ah, some bank did a whole valuation on what it would cost or if it would be more cost effective for everyone to shift to wood to heat their houses in the winter opposed to using natural gas. And they're they're just doing all these like weird calculations kind of like last panic. It's It's really crazy over there I'll try to find more information but I did hear that a couple weeks ago.
15:54.25
Grundle
And well I think the main problem for Europe is that they've gotten so reliant on Russia with regard to you know, getting all of their natural gas and and and straight up gas from Russia. And then also at the same time you had all of you know, Germany pretty much took off all it took shut down all of their nuclear reactors so they decided to go to. You know you know to natural gas to provide even their electricity generation which is insane because all because of fukushima and and whatever.
16:27.36
ebox86
That that was so stupid that was such a myopic decision and they're paying. They're paying for that right now I mean they're they're paying for that right now. But what us and for such a energy progressive country you know Germany and and you know the the german reactor designs are I mean.
16:29.77
Grundle
And yeah, exactly.
16:46.56
ebox86
None of the safest if not the safest you know? well-designed reactors in the world. Um, and it's just it's extremely myopic to think that you know nuclear just because of you know this small um fringe you know green group of you know. People raising concern about the the ah the waste I mean it's it's just ah I mean it's I don't know it's it's um, really sad to see because now like you said they're going to coal. They're going. They're they're re they they mothball the coal plants now they're they're opening them back up. But um. This this raises? ah an interesting point. That's many you alluded to about just so ah you ah Russia and the and the ukraine so you know this is a topic that we haven't really um, had a chance to opine about on the podcast since December our last episode and um. What? what? What are people's take on this I mean it's pretty wild I think the initial shock and awe of February you know I think we we saw them kind of um you know they they invaded from the north end of the country they tried to take Kiev the ukrainians kind of said you know fuck you and the. Complete lack of discipline and just anything of ah of you know, really well functioning. Ah you know machine and troop discipline and and just we we just the complete disarray of the russian army we saw that in full display. To the point where now they they focus on the dawn basque and um and now you know the the west is committed and we just had I think was it this week. We had a None lady um of Ukraine this is ah ah, um, Zelinsky's wife um ah, ah gave a speech in front of congress to a rousing. Um, ah, standing ovation and in front of congress. So that was that was ah um, that was interesting but we we have kind of gotten gotten to the point where we are um, full throated. Ah, support which is you know which is good I and think we have to do this but I mean the amount of money that we are putting towards.
18:52.63
Smanty
But careful with the word good I'm I'm sick of talking about this because it's it's almost everything you hear almost everything that's reported is is propaganda and misinformation or or intentionally. Misinformation which is propaganda because this was not a surprise that the the events leading up to this were were clear from the get-go and everyone knew that that ah Russia was planning on expanding there. Their their reach after after they had taken ah taken out was that that the country that they had taken the peninsula crime crimea um, but they weren't they they weren't planning on invading and this is just my opinion. But I I think they weren't planning on invading until they were. They were.
19:30.25
Grundle
I was crimea crimean yeah I was part of Ukraine.
19:31.33
ebox86
Um, Crimea Crimea peninsula.
19:45.75
Smanty
Essentially strongarmed by by europe nato the us and everyone else, but um, but the the thing is that though this has turned essentially into a proxy war between the us and Russia and it's it's extremely difficult to talk to talk about because no one will admit.
19:49.80
Alex
Nato. Yep.
20:04.60
Smanty
What's actually going on.
20:04.39
Grundle
Yeah I.
20:04.93
ebox86
Well I mean what what is going on I mean what are you? What are you alluding to.
20:07.57
Smanty
But the America is fighting a proxy war with Russia through Ukraine and I mean yeah.
20:13.68
ebox86
Well sure sure I mean that's that's been readily obvious since like you know April you know like.
20:19.60
Smanty
Sure but no, no one will admit it and people who admit it they've been publicly denounced.
20:24.71
Grundle
I I mean I I don't I don't know about Mut Lee I mean I'm I'm sure you can point at some people and say that they've been denounced and whatnot but you are correct. It is definitely.
20:25.58
ebox86
Well I mean if yeah.
20:38.32
Grundle
Ah, ah, proxy war. You know all ah Afghanistan or whatever you want to go it. But um I mean you are also correct that this was should have been seen coming years and years ago like when did they Annex Crimea wasn't it like 2008 or something like that. Um.
20:54.20
Smanty
Yeah, whichever that the previous olympics was what when was ah.
20:55.60
Grundle
That that happened it was yeah um, well because maybe it was none I don't know. But yeah, no, it was definitely sooner. They'll be more recent than that. But. You know I have the luxury of of dating a girl right now that actually lived in Ukraine like grew up in Ukraine and she's belarusian and man the her take on things compared to what I thought they were is like insane and she is not is like she at no point and is is she has she ever been. You know a fan of lushenko or of the ukrainians or of the russian you know property president you know of Vladimir Putin or whatever. But it's but it is very striking. To to hear her take versus what I thought was real and then and you know who knows maybe her her version might be heavily skewed because you know she grew up in the area and whatnot but like what's funny is like you know, right? now you hear all this talk about like coming from Russia being like. Oh the ukrainian nazis and blah blah blah blah blah and she's like she told me she's like yeah there are actually ultra nationalistic ukrainians that are actually really going and out going after and beating up and like actually trying to like kick out native russian speakers out of Ukraine.
22:17.35
Smanty
So quick question is is that in in like the the main land Ukraine I don't really know the different regions but as opposed to the the area that's been almost at civil war for the past couple years
22:19.90
Grundle
Because that is.
22:27.57
Grundle
Well right? So it was mainly like that at the eastern ukraine is is mostly native russian speakers apparently um, from what from what she says so that's like the bombas and all that kind of that stuff and also crimea. Um, and from what I understand from her is that you know she she's you know she's ah speaks russian she never spoke Ukrainian but once Ukraine kind of to separated from from the Ussr. There was a. Very large nationalistic furvor of people that were like hey like everybody should start speaking ukrainian if you live here you're ukrainian you have to be Ukrainian but bla bla blah and if you speak russian like we don't like you anymore and so pretty much so then you had that and that was like apparently coming from the central government in Kiev. And the people like on the in the eastern side of Ukraine were kind of being bullied by the ukrainian government which was central in Kiev which is you know on the other side of the country and then you had all of the native russian speaking people in the eastern ukraine which were like hey like. We don't like this and then you know you had all the you know obviously the russian speakers talk with their russian you know their russian family that are in Russia and you know so that's kind of why apparently Russia feels the need that they need to protect their like you know native russian speaking people in Ukraine. And I mean it's it's the this whole situation has been boiling since you know since the Ukraine left the Ussr and you know got got their own. You know their own their own government and their own hegemony. But. And like it even goes back to even before the u it like it while during the Ussr was apparently crimea had apparently been gifted by the Ussr. It had originally been part of Russia. And then because something was like some kind of political you know thing happening back in the 70 s or or like the early late 70 s um, they the russian you know like the like all the way the whoever was in power back then. Needed some kind of support in the greater ussr like congress and he needed the support of like the ukrainian delegation in order to like get something done and he was like hey if you help us with this. We'll give you crimea.
25:00.36
Grundle
Because they didn't think that there was ever going to be a time where the ussr was going to collapse or whatever and apparently in the legal documents when that whole thing went down. It was stated that like this is still considered part of the you know Crimea is still considered part of the native Russia but we'll let you have it. You know. For the next hundred years or something like that like and it was like a whole political thing but and then when the Ussr you know dissolved crimea never returned back to Russia just because somebody forgot to you know, read the documents or something at least that's what I what I understand from the situation.
25:36.96
Smanty
I Don't think I've ever heard that before in my life. That's interesting.
25:37.22
Grundle
So it's I mean like the whole the whole situation and that's yeah, the I mean you don't hear things because that's not something that we are supposed to know you know and you probably only hear about it if you are a native Russian or something like that. So I mean that's but.
25:45.36
Smanty
Are.
25:51.18
ebox86
Well it it. It is wild how many things we don't hear because it doesn't fit a narrative right? You know we live in such a a time now where you know everything has to fit a narrative and you're either that you're hearing things that are that are flavored in 1
25:57.30
Grundle
Right.
26:08.30
ebox86
Sides take versus another side's take and it it drastically affects the the information you hear as a result and and that that is just one of the unfortunate things of the the world the time we we live in but um. But yeah, no it. It is very fascinating and I think the other thing is is the um, just kind of going back to the just the present. Um, the you know the amount of aid military aid ukraine has received as a gesture of good faith now just just looking at this you know, ah from ah from a high level. Um, you know they weren't an eu member they didn't really expedite that or really found interest in that they weren't a they couldn't be a Nato member because Nato member Nato um membership rules dictates that you can't have an act of order dispute to be a member so you you so they they couldn't be Nato members previously. Ah, they didn't really favor I don't think Eu membership and now they're trying to Fasttrack. You know Eu Eu membership and all of the all of the military aid that they're receiving none if not millions of dollars in aid. Is purely well I should say millions if not none from the us I'm just I'm speaking from the western western europe I mean France giving you know Ah ah, large heavy artillery vehicles and ah and Germany sending. Ah you know I think they were sending light infantry tanks. Ah.
27:18.77
Alex
Of failure None
27:18.91
Grundle
There you go.
27:35.85
ebox86
You know? but I mean just yeah, if you think about the us sending hundred I mean it billions of dollars it's just this is all now the us is is you know interest is its own thing but these other countries it's more or less out of good faith and and it's just um, it's really striking to see. Ah, the amount of of aid that has been rendered this far. Um from from them. Um I mean it's it's really It's really something to see in in modern military time to to see ah um to see it play out like this but I don't know what do people think so Putin's endgame are.
28:07.50
Grundle
Well.
28:12.65
ebox86
What what What is the endgame look like I mean I don't really see any good options here. Um you know from from an exit strategy I think he's already balls deep I think he's already. Ah, you know he's already heavily invested in this economically. Um I mean is it too. Basically. annex don bass and call it good or I mean what? what? which is a realistic possibility at this point.
28:37.57
Grundle
So yeah I mean ah, the I really think that the only way that this thing is going to end is if None it turns out that Putin is actually sick and he dies which is a lot of people are saying that he's like gut cancer or something but who knows. Um, or the other is that he gets you know he gets deposed by his generals because they're just like we're not winning this award It's not gonna we're not gonna be able to finish this and bla bla bla and they kick him out or that the aid from the west slowly starts to trickle down and then Ukraine just can't. Continue to bring the fight to the russians on the east like in the east and then they'll have to seede and and give up the east and the problem is that you know they they can't Ukraine. Can't do that at this point because. The reason that the that the Ukraine was fighting the civil war so long in and in the east is because the east is like the equivalent of you know the the greater manufacturing area for for Ukraine. Um, you know that's where a lot of their a lot of their natural resources. Are there a lot of their. Um, factories and everything that they well I don't know if they're still operational at this point but a lot of their manufacturing and a lot of their you know iron and timber and all the like all the natural resources that you need to continue to operate as a successful economy is there is in that region and you know. Same thing with like all the grain like all of the you know everybody's hearing about how the ukrainian grain like you know exports is is getting crushed and it's because they can't get the grain out of the fields and like because that's where it is. It's all out that way.
30:23.21
Alex
So what.
30:24.91
Grundle
Ah, in the west. It's mostly like you know the west is kind of like ah is like the is more metropolitan. Um, and so if it comes to the point where the only way that but like I see Ukraine bowing out is if people if the you know Eu or the us is like look. We're not going to keep giving you anything so you got to you got to you got to talk with bootin and figure figure something out like I think.
30:49.10
ebox86
Well that is interesting.
30:49.68
Smanty
Well that the the ah yeah, just one second the um the other side of that is Russia has been in talks with China South Africa who else Brazil in India that's. Bricks but they've also been in talks with with Iran Saudi Arabia and Argentina and a couple of other countries if they come to some sort of an agreement and then externally they make negotiations as another proxy between the us and. And Russia then and and and europe and it it could. It could sort of fizzle out like that as well and I mean one of the things that that struck me by surprise was how quickly the us and europe were willing to use financial. Um.
31:32.57
Grundle
Yeah.
31:45.27
Smanty
Strategies as warfare so financial warfare. Um, and it kind of in a way backfired almost from the get-go because Russia had all these other alliances that were willing to take up the slack and um. From from the outside perspective I'm sure from the inside perspective the the people of Russia are struggling hard but from the outside perspective Russia's economy does look reasonable and they they they are maintaining some some trade um and now now there there's reports about bricks. Um, attempting to undermine the dollar create a new world reserve currency based on oil and gold. So we'll see.
32:31.52
Grundle
Yeah, no I I agree with you on that point as well like the every fricking country's what dream is to be the new world reserve currency right? Um, and that is one of the strongest weapons that the United States has is to be able to be like okay well.
32:45.50
Smanty
Are.
32:50.40
Grundle
Want to keep doing this guess what? you're not allowed to use the dollar anymore and then effectively knocking somebody out of completely being able to be part of the modern world economy because if you can't send money across borders then guess what you're screwed. Um, but yeah, say if China and and Russia and India decide to say screw it. We're going to start using the chinese one as the as our reserve currency or whatever that would be very bad news for us. So I mean it's ah it's a very delicate game that everybody is playing at this point. So um, you know if that that.
33:24.73
Smanty
And it's not It's not unheard of I mean ah Jerome Powell came out when was it like four months ago five months ago he was at a hearing in front of congress and he mentioned specifically I don't see. Um I can see a situation where we have two world reserve currencies operating the same time which is pretty scary and a lot of people just brushed over that.
33:45.75
Grundle
Yep. yeah yeah I mean that would that would definitely take away a very very very very strong weapon that we've always had um and if it if it went away that would be bad news for the berenstein bears. So. And that would take away a lot of our soft power. You know, um, and and I think that's what the chinese are actually really trying to do because you know you've got the the the new belt. What is it called belt and bridges or Belton Road um or or something like that. But but essentially what's going on is you've got.
34:18.11
ebox86
Belt Yeah Belt belt and suspenders certain.
34:25.42
Grundle
Ah, like even the state department like the people like in the in the state department are complaining a lot. Um because what's going on is you've got the the chinese are going into Africa and lake are like hey you guys you guys want money you want you want us to build a new highway for you. You want a dam you want you want bridges you want anything like that. We got money. We'll give you. We'll give you $10000000000 and you don't have to pay us back you like we'll give you great, really favorable. Interest rates, blah blah blah blah blah and they're just dumping money into like india and and fricking like ah africa and whatnot. Just dumping money to like just create this soft power that they that we used to do but um and then like the state department people are complaining because they're like hey like I'm going into say nigeria and I'm there. And I'm trying to build relations within the for the united states with this with this covered with this country and in africa but what I'm here. It's there's just one of me and there's a none fricking chinese guys here doing the same thing and it's it's ah and they're they were. They're really getting. Outmanned and outdollared or well yeah wand than ah than we than we have been doing for a long time and ah and I mean that that all is there just so that the chinese will be able to have that soft power to be able to go in and be like okay well. We built this dam for you and we built these bridges and we gave you you know a 0 won well guess what now I want to be able to I want I want to annex taiwan and guess what unless you vote in the un to let me do that I'm going to make you pay me back this money or whatever. You know? that's that's the kind of soft power that I'm talking about? Oh yeah, that's why the un exists so but I mean it is. it's a it's a fickle beast. Anyways.
36:10.82
Smanty
And yeah, and so we've been doing there for a while now.
36:27.14
Grundle
So do we want to? um I mean like from that from that perspective though. Like I think we can probably I don't know I don't know if there's ah much more. We can really say on like the Russia thing I mean but this bricks.
36:32.60
ebox86
Works.
36:40.97
ebox86
Yeah, no, it's it's interesting now. More recently I did hear that they are allowing Grange Exports I think that through the port so that was that was something that was this week um so that.
36:49.89
Alex
So yeah I was just looking at that trying to do some studying up on the I saw that what is it people looking I had some website pulled up when was that announced Green rush.
37:00.78
Grundle
Yeah.
37:07.30
ebox86
What was it? Oh yeah, the exports.
37:09.70
Alex
Grain deal something like that.
37:14.00
Grundle
Yeah, so as Russia agrees to let Ukraine ship grain easing world food shortages Ukraine and Russia signed a deal to lift Russia's blockade of ukrainian ports which which has worsened a global food crisis their most important agreement since the war began July Twenty second so that was.
37:14.60
Alex
Just milk.
37:33.21
Alex
Um, yeah I think it was today I saw it this morning. The None time.
37:33.31
Grundle
Today. Wow well that says updated at 10 4 10 16 pm yeah I mean that's that's very important apparently Ukraine like the you know the ukrainian flag is blue and yellow. The reason that it's blue is for the sky and yellow because of grain.
37:39.73
ebox86
Yes.
37:53.12
Grundle
And apparently like so Ukraine is just a massive manufacturer. Well producer of grain in this and in Europe and I mean they go everywhere. but I mean I but I would assume that Africa's definitely getting having trouble with that as well. Um.
37:57.70
Alex
Gave me.
37:58.79
Smanty
And this ship predominantly down to Africa right.
38:12.55
Grundle
I don't know exactly where where they send it. But I mean I'm like the the gra you know the world is so interconnected nowadays that ah I mean and I'm sure ukrainian grain finds. Its way here in the United States so it's just.
38:25.90
ebox86
Yeah, it's what that would refer to it as the breadbasket of Europe is for what I've I've heard it described us.
38:30.78
Alex
Yeah I'm sure Ukraine probably doesn't have too hard of a time shipping it west but getting it to those Eastern Eastern countries is probably what the deals mainly focused on.
38:31.00
Grundle
Ye.
38:46.10
ebox86
Um, so pivoting a bit I think to chips and this chip deal and this was ah what was it The chips act in Congress and and this is something about um this was a.
38:59.50
Smanty
I I call it the Nancy Pelosi act or sorry, what's what's her. What's her husband's name. Ah yeah.
39:01.52
Grundle
So alcoholic pelosi the one that got the Dui.
39:03.36
ebox86
A bill. Yeah yeah, yeah, um, so this yes this is interesting. So this this chips act is is aimed at at providing funding and and kind of a rejuvenation of ah.
39:04.62
Alex
I Something was Alka Doi policy.
39:22.48
ebox86
of of ah, ah building and supporting ah chip manufacturing in America which is at this point with based on the progression of technology pro prohibitively expensive and and and costs just exorbitant and ah amounts of money to produce chips microchips. Microprocessors things of that nature and and so it just takes none and billions of dollars and it takes the the help of not only countries but private industry to kind of come together and and to make that happen and so we're kind of getting our our butts kicked America. Ah, so to say with with this industry this particular manufacturing industry and so this is a bill designed to kind of help aid and boost ah production I'm not sure if it relates to a specific plant. Ah, but um, someone can correct me if I'm I'm wrong. There. But um. But but it's it's certainly about ah proportioning a certain amount of money towards towards the aid of of that and um.
40:19.91
Grundle
Yeah I've I've actually been trading this for the last three weeks um yeah and I because I told you to but um, okay, but ah I mean I've been I've been like I've you know like.
40:25.52
Alex
Um, so by so I was not my own this on my own.
40:38.99
Grundle
Over the last three weeks I've been trading amd and soxel and um, just buying you know weekly fds and ah, that was actually very profitable like over the last two weeks um because we've seen a very nice run up. Um from about. I mean I bought I bought shares at None which I think was around ah the none or no, maybe it was more around like the None or something like that somewhere in that ballpark. And then I was buying weekly fds. Um, and you know for the first for the eighty strike and then I played the the 85 s and then I I was I was in the 90 s and ah, it's been It's been a nice run up um, made 30400% Each week on on my plays which was nice but then we got shellaced when when what's his name. Mitch Mcconnell came out and was like oh we're not going to proceed on the ah on the chips act at this time and ah that that one was annoying but. Thankfully one of our one of our out of options guys put it posted a stock alert when that none came out because I was actually driving back from the beach I was in the car and I saw the stock alert come across and I was like sell sell sell so and I sold all my positions and I still still made some cash. Which was good. Um, but yeah, but that trade kind of fell apart now because we had ah seagate had their earnings yesterday I think and their ah. Their demand for their you know for not for their processors. But for their hard drives heads like dried up and that kind of took a good a good four or five dollars off of off of that trade because it was up to Md made it up to none from none which is where I was started playing it at. And then sockxel was around like None or something like that None and got up to None and then kind of crashed. Um, but yeah, like the the whole thing with that that ships act is is interesting because. It's definitely necessary I mean like you see it within the car industry here in the United States it's affecting Ford it's affecting gm it's affecting tesla it's affecting everybody where pretty much all of our chips are manufactured in Taiwan and you know China and Asia and and whatnot and.
43:21.99
Grundle
The and then the you know the the raw materials that that actually go into manufacturing chips are a lot of it comes from Russia and Ukraine surprisingly because there's a number there's like a noble gas. That's very important for the production of of chips that the main. Exporter is Russia and Ukraine um, and and then with the supply chain disruptions and all that stuff you know we don't have to rehash everything that went down with covid but you know we had had some serious issues and if we're going to be able to be. Ah, continuing country and you know modern economy. We need to have our own chip production in the United States like because now what all we do here. We design it like Amd based in the United States Intel based in the United States do they produce the chips. No.
44:10.34
Alex
Qua comedy.
44:13.40
Grundle
Design the chips and then they have they have you know tsm or where is it taiwan semiconductor they they manufacture it for us and then they ship it over but imagine if China takes over Taiwan guess what? no more no more chips for us and ah yeah, so it's actually a very. Very very big security issue that really needs to be that needs to be taped that needs to be figured out and they're pay. What is it I think it was like either 52000000000 or $54000000000 worth of stimulus that was going to go into it and then plus a number of tax credits to.
44:33.41
Alex
Nationals The national security.
44:48.44
Grundle
Um, to kind of influence these these chip designers to then build you know manufacturing plants here in the United States to then you know produce these chips and I think um, ah Alex you were saying that you had been playing the ah the actual people that.
45:02.30
Alex
I was I was just about to tag in there. Yeah, you yeah you you were So yeah, right? you you said the analogy. What was it something buying the buying the pitchforks or selling the pitchforks to the whole thing right.
45:07.45
Grundle
Yeah, the company that yeah you go ahead. Go.
45:16.34
Grundle
Yeah, so sell the pitchforks to the mob.
45:21.21
Alex
So the pitchworks for the mob. So I'm buying companies that make the chips such as asml. Um, asml holdings is their full name. They're base out of Norway something like that.
45:31.49
Grundle
Right? But but they make the they they make the man the machinery that actually makes the chips right.
45:39.58
Alex
That's yeah so I would say they make they're they're like 1 of the only I believe so they're the only manufacturer that's able to make these like None what is it 5 I don't even know isn the newer the new gent five nanimeter. Yep.
45:50.83
Grundle
This None nanoometer yep
45:52.31
Smanty
We yeah five nanometer which is insane that we've we've come down that low I mean just over the past six years but so
45:56.30
Alex
Really like the only. Yeah yeah, so there they've got the machines that can make those and they're on huge back order I think Intelligence bought a couple of them several months ago and then the other one is ah lamb research which also sort of does the same kind of thing I haven't done too much research. On each of the companies couldn't talk too much about them. But I just know I want to own them right Now. So.
46:17.54
Grundle
I Yeah no went when you when you mentioned that play I was I was very impressed with that because I didn't I didn't think of that but that's but yeah, like I was saying it's like selling the pitchforks to the mob or you know selling you know pickaxes to the gold miners back in the day you know you don't you don't like that's that's.
46:31.78
Alex
As it.
46:35.25
Grundle
The like the deep in the play like you know the people that made the most money on a gold rush weren't the people that were going out and digging in the ground looking for gold in San Francisco it was the people living in San Francisco that were selling the supplies to the gold miners. Those are the ones that made the money. So.
46:45.84
Alex
Sell the machinery I said.
46:52.23
Grundle
Yep, So that's that's a very smart play I like that one I I Really like that one here. Yeah no and one of the one of the one of the key points of the chips act is that the they're going to be giving a tax.
46:55.68
Alex
it's done pretty well it's done pretty well I don't have the exact numbers but it's definitely green 20%
47:07.90
Grundle
Ah, you know, kind of like um section none which is where it allows companies section. None is essentially a tax code or is a tax you know american tax code reference. Um for ah ah the allowance of. Immediate exppensing of the capital expenditure for for equipment or for like whatever you might need for your business and it's meant to stimulate investment into ah being able to manufacture or to run a business and it's a direct way to stimulate. Like companies or people to go out and buy new equipment and buy you know, buy stuff to be able to manufacture and then ergo creating new jobs and whatnot and so that's essentially what they're doing is they're creating a special tax code section that. Ah, in the in the american tax code to to influence these chip makers to want to go out and buy these five nanometer chip you know chip machines and then locate them and set them up here in the United States and then when they do that they can then you know say you spend a billion dollars to build a chip manufacturing factory and you've got you know $20000000000 worth of profit in your company and you're trying to cut your tax bill down. Well guess what? you just got to you just you just cut off $1000000000 worth of that tax bill. Directly because now you you spend that money on buying you know chip manufacture chip chip equipment and ah so that's that's what they're trying to do mainly with this with this act. It's not about the 52000000000 $54000000000 in straight cash. It's that tax is that tax fricking break that they're giving people. And that's that's the big That's the big driver of that of that whole that whole act which is which is really cool.
48:52.75
Alex
Yeah, these um yeah I just looked it up real quick these ah asml machines the the ones that I was investing ah they sell for $300000000 each just 1 machine $300000000 so
49:03.36
Grundle
I just 1 machine. oh nice yeah, oh yeah yeah yeah so yeah I've been plug been messing around with this with this play. Um.
49:10.70
Alex
That's quite a tax break if they're able to utilize that.
49:13.76
ebox86
That's that's a nice cell.
49:21.60
Grundle
and and yeah like like ah like we've all heard um I think Nancy Pelosi's husband um sometime a couple years ago or maybe last year he bought longs like really long dated Nvidia calls and apparently was executing on them over the last like week or so couple weeks. So yeah Pelosi I think should they made something like None or something like that some kind of insane number on those longs on the old potentially insider trading knowledge that this thing was coming down the pike but who knows it maybe it wasn't maybe it was who knows.
49:57.70
ebox86
I I love I loved the the presser she was in recently where someone asked her a reporter asked her about that specific trade and I don't know if you guys have seen the ah the mashup with the Chappelle skit. It's like ah it's like a complete 1 to 1
50:07.34
Alex
That yo.
50:16.87
ebox86
Um, um, ah you know, rendering of the of the chapele skill like Huh excuse me what I'm sorry what and then he just like slaps the water dish runs off and she's she she's like oh no, of course, not you know, just walks away and it's like so um.
50:26.31
Grundle
Yeah, yeah I saw that those those pretty funny I mean I I mean I like I understand I mean like can you imagine liffrickin temptation that somebody like that has like come on like.
50:32.29
Alex
And can can you make it any more obvious. But.
50:35.81
ebox86
Oh.
50:46.26
Grundle
Of course they're fricking doing it. So I mean I feel bad. But yeah I mean it's it's.
50:52.68
ebox86
Oh yeah, well, but but this raises the point about laws though. It's like where are the laws like I understand the temptation and and you have to you have to you're right? You have to be like honest like of course they're going to be doing it because they they're making the laws they have their privy to all of this classified.
51:04.88
Grundle
So.
51:12.37
ebox86
Detail and information about things that are happening that of course is relevant to the financial markets where where are the laws right.
51:12.45
Smanty
Our hold on a None hold on a None Everyone in the world. Everyone in the world is tempted but everyone in the world except for her or except for people who who are who are supposed to be public servants. Are are being prosecuted for for this type of stuff I mean come on the the temptation means nothing.. There should be accountability right.
51:36.69
Grundle
I wrote.
51:37.86
ebox86
Well I know but I'm saying there should be that there's not only should there be accountability, but it should should There should be a. There should be a review panel and there should be you know this should be breaking Flagrant Blade breaking of of obvious laws like you know you can't be a senator or. You know, be in the house and have access to all of this privilege information and you you shouldn't be able to trade at all right? I mean I mean that's that's that's what it should be and I don't care her husband I don't care her financial advisor like that you're paid as a public servant.
51:59.89
Alex
Um, I mean yeah investment bankers.
52:00.00
Grundle
Yeah, yeah.
52:13.39
ebox86
And and that's kind of it. You know So I'm I'm shocked that that kind of you know this is even allowed or doable. You know it's kind of like discovered after the fact it should have been like a very obvious you know doing you know, but I don't know.
52:25.47
Alex
Yeah, investment bankers. But.
52:25.74
Grundle
I Mean there's there's There's definitely a reason why why? most of our you know, representatives and senators and all that Stuff. There's a reason why they're willing to you know, go through all the shit in the hell that they go through every day from the public and from the news and from having their life having to live their life underneath a fricking microscope. Um, and yeah, I'm not saying it's right? But that's why they do it like.
52:56.81
ebox86
Right? right.
52:57.50
Grundle
Like like seriously like my my my family I mean um I don't want to dox myself. But I mean I like the the hairdress there's a hairdresser in georgetown that that was renting from somebody I'm not going to say who it was but ah. And but Nancy Nancy shows up there pretty much every every every morning and gets her hair done because she knows she's going to be on Tv every day and ah yeah, it's I mean to have that kind of lifestyle where literally you have to go and get your hair done every single day at six zero in the morning in order to. Prepare yourself because you're gonna be in front of None cameras every day I mean that's that's crazy.
53:39.67
ebox86
Well that it that is true and also she's like Hela old I mean I remember like balking at the fact that she was 79 like a couple years ago she's like eighty or eighty one or like 82 now I mean.
53:49.55
Grundle
Yeah, yeah.
53:54.78
ebox86
She's like hella hella old like what grave they dug her out of I mean it's It's just amazing that she is still ah as functional and as alert and as like it's impressive to a certain you know degree? Um, but yeah and I'd say that that is a good point about just being on in front of the cameras is it is something that you.
54:04.19
Grundle
And.
54:14.19
ebox86
You don't think about until you know you're you're you're there, You're thrust into that. Um, okay so panel I am going to pivot us to final trades Now it's time.
54:14.55
Grundle
So.
54:24.55
ebox86
Final trade. So for me this week I mainly I know I think there's some people here that think I'm a communist but I had some spy puts and I had traded traded those and then we pumped so those foots did not go so well. And so um, I'm mainly trading spy right now. Um I've been looking at Amazon because ah you know they've they've really after this split have had an interesting range I mean I have come maybe a month or so ago was kind of championing. Um Amazon a hundred put. And ah, you know I still think you know if we have ah ways to go down I still think that's a nice option kind of ah for maybe a couple months out. Ah, but right now we're in kind of like the 22 21 kind of range right now. So they've rebounded a little bit but it's it's not. Yeah, it's not the the the degree that to which I would have liked to have seen it had had I been on the other side of the coin. So so so those are the main main trades and main plays that I've I've had this this week so Alex
55:30.39
Alex
Yeah, unfortunately haven't been I haven't been trading too much I kind of just have this portfolio that I have built out and I'm more of the dollar cost average I yeah I just keep putting money and but I did put a little extra money into snapchat today after I saw their tank down 30% after earnings i. I don't know I just see I see it as a long-term hold in my opinion I think snapchat's kind of just a a young giant kind of in the social media. Um era I guess right? We got a lot of young lot a lot of young. Um. A demographic that uses snapchat I think they won't really grow out of it. Think it's something that I don't know it's it's still somewhat new big and I'll just plan on holding it for a long time I think it's incredibly cheap right now and undervalued. So.
56:18.86
ebox86
Right? Nice as long as I don't bring ah snap spectacles back I'm I'm good with snapchat.
56:22.47
Alex
Oh that was stupid that some of the stuff they do is really dumb. But it's just they're so big. The amount of users they have is just I don't know how they're messing it up Really, it's but whatever.
56:25.80
Grundle
So.
56:36.41
ebox86
Nice, Nice cool grundel.
56:37.80
Grundle
Ah, you know I'm probably going to keep trying to go balls deep on this chips act thing. Um, you know the chips act they were saying was supposed to possibly get you know voted on the other last week or this you know this past week that we just had. But now it looks like it's going to go to the house at some point this week I think it already passed a procedural vote in the senate. Um, where they you know, got out of ah of committee essentially and now Mitch the turtle mitch the turtle has kind of given it the green light at this point. Um. And so our our our main vu Nancy Pelosi is going to is going to have the vote sometime I think Tuesday possibly next week on it and if that passes then it will go to Biden as long as he doesn't die from covid. Ah, will sign it and then I would expect. There will be an additional runup in in the chips. So I've been kind of messing around with socksel socksel if you're just buying shares. It's kind of a ah bunch of It's you know it's essentially an etf that tracks semiconductors. But if you want to be direct into it I think amd has got some some you know some some wall street bet strength behind it. Ah, the fact that it closed at what 1088 and I think in the aftermarket. It's at 87 ninety today I mean I definitely see amd over 90 like the fact that it's even that it got down to seventy. $1 is crazy to me. Um n video. You know another option. Um. And yeah I think that's that's really my my main my main play for the last bit and then you know continued probably and then at when that happens you might see some some some pump in stocks like Tesla and Ford and Gm you know the car manufacturers because. Any kind of good news on with regard to chips I will generally make the the car. The the vehicle manufacturers and ev manufacturers ah I would think but would get a little love after that too. So. So those are that's definitely what I've been watching and we'll continue to watch into next week
58:57.63
ebox86
Nice, nice, very good miss Manny.
58:59.52
Smanty
So yeah, I'll keep it short I just made the crypto trade and spy so played the kangaroo market with spy I mean I had I had calls last friday over the weekend into Monday um, played the bull moves. And until today essentially played the bear move actually I did I did take a loss when I I tried to play the bear move I think it was yesterday into yesterday because I thought we were going to take a dip before the ah the red- to green move really didn't move.
59:23.13
Grundle
So yep Spy spy.
59:25.63
ebox86
Nice crypto gang stuff.
59:37.66
Smanty
Much.
59:38.84
ebox86
Hold those puts we're gonna We're gonna keep and we're gonna keep drilling drills on coming coming up so that.
59:41.90
Grundle
I mean I want I've been pretty I've been very bullish in the last like three weeks but this what happened today really kind of shook me on that the like the you hit is good.
59:52.69
Smanty
Well if you it I was just going to say if you if you take a look at the technical side of things too. We're looking at a a head and shoulders on the on the spy that looks like it's it's lining up with the with the gap resistance.
01:00:02.00
Grundle
And.
01:00:07.99
Grundle
I oh yeah yeah yeah I know I mean I'm I definitely could see ah could see some idea you know it does look like I wants to try and break out here. But I don't know. We see where where there's definitely some resistance here at at the sandp 4000 so
01:00:28.90
ebox86
Cool. Awesome! Well I appreciate everyone on the panel joining the pod this episode um Alexrendda and Smanny we will see everyone next time on another episode of outcomes training. So thanks, Very much.
01:00:43.53
Grundle
Awesome! thanks.
01:00:45.37
Alex
Thank you.
01:00:53.75
ebox86
Um, please consider all risks drains and objectives here you al da trading you not financial advisorr and does not reminder to know anybody do a trade.